Prediction of Varvara Lepchenko vs Carolina Meligeni Alves at Quito Open - Quito 12-02-25

• In second serve performance over the last six months, Varvara Lepchenko scored higher, winning 42.49% of points compared to Carolina Meligeni Alves' 38.03%. Does this indicate an advantage? It suggests a slight edge in this area for Lepchenko.
• Their return game is quite similar for second serves, with Lepchenko at 47.81% and Alves at 47.92%. Yet, Alves has a stronger first serve return rate at 35.23% against Lepchenko's 31.61%.
• When under pressure, Lepchenko saved 48.63% of breakpoints, marginally outperforming Alves' 45.51%.
• Alves boasts a higher overall match win percentage over the past year, at 60.53%, compared to Lepchenko's 53.16%.
• Both players excel on clay, with identical career win rates of 58%. Grass performance is a disadvantage for both, with Alves yet to win a match.
• In the past year, Alves achieved a better win rate of 64.18% in Challengers/ITF matches compared to Lepchenko's 59.26%.
• Lepchenko faced tougher opponents on average, playing against those ranked 210.81, while Alves’ opponents had an average ranking of 380.76.
• If the match extends to a deciding set, Lepchenko leads with a 61% success rate, surpassing Alves’ 52%.

Editorial Prediction (December 1, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing recent serving and return statistics, both players exhibit specific strengths. Varvara Lepchenko's strength lies in her second serve performance, which could be a key factor in the match.

In terms of match pressure, the slight edge goes to Lepchenko, who saves more breakpoints. This may play a crucial role in tight game situations.

Despite Carolina Meligeni Alves' higher overall match win rate over the past year, she has faced opponents with a lower average ranking than Lepchenko, suggesting slightly softer competition.

Lepchenko's experience with higher-ranked opponents and her superior performance in deciding sets might prove decisive.

Based on these comparative facts, Varvara Lepchenko is more likely to secure victory in the forthcoming match.